1Q/2010 Longmeadow Home Sales are disappointing!

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing the latest single family home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts. These results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

1Q/2010 Highlights

2010 has started out very slowly with January - March home sales down 16.6% from 1Q/2009 and down 39.0% from 1Q/2007. Longmeadow's 1Q/ 2010 sales results seem to be in contrast with other parts of the northeastern US that recently have been showing improving sales volumes. The number of homes sold in the first three months of 2010 were significantly lower than the corresponding period last year and much lower than the last good year for home sales (2007). Only 5 homes were sold in February 2010.

1Q/2010: 25
1Q/2009: 30
1Q/2008: 23
1Q/2007: 41

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During the 1Q/2010 median sales prices for homes in Longmeadow continued a downward trend after showing some recovery in mid-2009. Median prices in March 2010 were 15.7% lower than the peak reached in September 2007 ($295,500 vs. 350,000).

A large percentage of homes continue to be sold at prices below the official assessment values continuing a trend that has been in place for the past two years. For the 1Q/2010 ~ 45% of the home (12 out of 25) were sold below the current assessed value- with some homes selling over $100,000 below official assessment values.
Let's hope that the warm weather, low interest rates and improving economy will reinvigorate the Longmeadow housing market.

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Plastic Fences Make Good Neighbors ?

As I drove through Longmeadow this past week I spotted the many signs of the fall season. In addition to all of the trees still ablaze with remnants of a spectacular season of fall colors, there are the many different methods that abound in Longmeadow for dealing with the leaves after they fall. Longmeadow for many years has not collected leaves at curbside so residents have had to make their own arrangements.

Bagging leaves on some streets is sometimes a contest to see who can bag the most leaves...

Some people rake the leaves to curbside (or into the street) and have them removed.....

I've always been a little bit frustrated that the leaves from my neighbors' trees and lawns blow onto my lawn (I have no maple trees but have a lot of maple leaves)....

Here is a possible solution that one Longmeadow homeowner is trying this year....

It will be interesting to see how effective adding a 3 ft plastic fence around the perimeter of your property is to reduce the volume of leaves.

Perhaps, next year this will become a new "sign" of fall in Longmeadow

Longmeadow Real Estate Continues to Improve

There was good news this month....both home sales and prices in Longmeadow are increasing!!

Home sales in the month of August were significantly higher than one year ago (19 vs. 12) and YTD figures improved to show an increase vs. 2008 (110 vs. 103, a 7% increase).

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Median home selling prices in August continued to increase toward the peak reached in October 2007 ($350,000 vs. $335,000 in August). Median home prices in Longmeadow are up 8.1% from August 2008 ($335,000 vs. $310,000).

With an increasing number of homes being sold and the accompanying increase in median home sales prices, it does appear that a bottom may be forming for the Longmeadow real estate market (as well as the rest of the US). This combined with a recovery economy may lead to a more normally functioning real estate market in 2010.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2009 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs.

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Longmeadow Sells Property at Public Auction

The Town of Longmeadow, Massachusetts successfully sold the property at 386 Bliss Road at a public auction tonight. There were about 45-50 interested people in attendance with 10 registered bidders. The auction started slowly with an initial bid of $1000 but quickly moved to a much higher price before the serious bids emerged. The winning bid was then entered by Michael Albano, the former Mayor of Springfield at $137,000.

It is expected that the closing on the property will occur by September 14. It certainly appears that the town will recover all of its owed costs (+ extra) and will have transitioned this property out of deliquency and back onto the tax rolls. Congratulations to Mary Pequignot and others who played a role in making this a successful auction. A large portion of the $137,000 will likely be placed in the Longmeadow General Fund for FY2010 budget uses.

Below is a brief video that captures the essence of what happened.... if you have never been to a public auction it is worth viewing....

386 Bliss Road, Longmeadow- Visual Inspection

Here are some inside photos from the inspection tour held at 386 Bliss Road earlier today... This property is scheduled for public auction next week. See previous post for additional details about the auction.

The above photos suggest that the condition of the house is better than it really is.... I didn't go into the basement but reports from others who did suggested that the levels of mold and mildew were very high. In addition, there was evidence of widespread wood rot. My opinion (and I am certainly not an expert in this area) is that the best thing for the both the neighborhood, the new property owner and the town is a complete demolition.

Longmeadow to Sell Property at Auction

The Town of Longmeadow will auction off property at 386 Bliss Road on Wednesday, August 12 at 7 PM. The auction will take place at the Longmeadow Community House. The last public auction of property in Longmeadow took place in November 2003.

According to Mary D. Pequignot, Longmeadow Treasurer/ Collector, the town acquired this property earlier this year through a tax title foreclosure. There is an estimated $100,000 owed to the town including delinquent property taxes, outstanding water and sewer bills and associated legal fees. The key objectives of the public auction is to recover these costs and to re-establish this property on the tax rolls.

As can be seen in the photos below the house has not been maintained for many years and is in pretty poor condition. There have been people living in the house until earlier this year when the occupant was evicted. The house has not been cleaned and will be sold on an “as is” basis.



The current value of this property is listed on Longmeadow's assessment records at $231,000 with the 0.50 acre of land listed at $190,000. It would appear that best outcome for Longmeadow and the surrounding neighbors would be for the winner bidder to demolish this house which is currently a significant neighborhood eyesore and to build a new one. This property is situated on a corner lot (corner of Bliss Road/ Oakland Drive) in a desirable location close to local schools (Blueberry Hill Elementary School/ Williams Middle School and Longmeadow HS) and Bliss Park.

[click above image to view active viewing window]

There will be an open house on Wednesday, August 5 from 10 am – 12 noon for interested parties. For those interested in participating in the open house or public auction please read the official press release on the Longmeadow Community Bulletin Board.

Given the current real estate market, the winner bidder for this property could get a real bargain.

I hope to be able to post videos of the open house and the public auction, so if you are interested, please bookmark this blog and plan to come back to read future posts.

Sales are slowing in Longmeadow

However, there was some good news this month....

• The number of Longmeadow home sales in the January - June 2009 period were significantly higher vs. the corresponding period in 2008 (74 vs. 64). See figure 1 below.
  
• The median sales price in May and June was at the highest level since the peak in October 2007 ($318,500 vs. $350,000) and the continuing trend this year appears to be up. See figure 2 below.

On the negative side...

• There appeared to be a resurgence in home sales during the first four months of 2009 that I wrote about in a posting in early May... possibly due to low mortgage rates... but home sales for the past two months (May/ June) were at the lowest levels in the past 4 years (see figure 1).
  
• The median sales price (average of past 6 months) showed an increase during the past two months to $318,500 but it is still 9.0% lower vs. the peak reached in October 2007 ($318,500 vs. $350,000)- (see figure 2).
  
• 15 out 29 (52%) homes in May/ June were sold at less than the official Town of Longmeadow assessed value (see figure 3). This is very similar to the trend for January - June 2009 with 39 out of 74 (53%) homes selling below the assessed value.
  

Figure 1- Home Sales, Longmeadow, MA
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Figure 2- Median Sales Price, Longmeadow, MA
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Figure 3- Sales Price vs. Assessment Value, Longmeadow, MA
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For the first 6 months of 2009, there were only 5 properties (out of 74 total, 6.8%) sold at prices > $500,000 although there are 27 properties (out of 114, 23.7%) currently listed with MLS. This is probably not surprising given the current difficulties in getting large mortgages.

Home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts in 2009 are on track to be higher than 2008 but the recent increase in mortgage interest rates may be slowing down this resurgence. However, it does appear that a bottom may be forming in the Longmeadow real estate market (as well as the rest of the US). This bottoming process combined with a economic recovery may lead to a more normally functioning real estate market in 2010. Let's hope so!

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Some continued good news this month....

Here is the good news...

• The first bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales in the January - April 2009 period were significantly higher (up 45%) vs. the corresponding period in 2008 (45 vs. 31).
• April 2009 sales were up 88% from April 2008 (15 vs. 8)
• Longmeadow home sales in April 2009 (15) were at the highest level during the past four years and equal to results for April 2007.

On the negative side...

• Sales for the January - April 2009 period were still significantly lower vs. results for the corresponding January - April periods in 2007 (45 vs. 56).
• The median sales price (average of past 6 months) showed an increase this month to $303,500 but it is still 13.3% lower vs. the peak reached in October 2007 ($303,500 vs. $350,000).

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing recent single family home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts.

[click chart to enlarge]

Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website). The trend of a significant number of homes selling at prices below current assessment value continued in April (6 out of 15). The chart below shows that the median sales price (6 month trailing average) in April 2009 increased to $303,500 but it is still 13.3% lower vs. peak of $350,000 reached in October 2007.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2009 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs. The above results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

The latest results continue to show that dramatically lower mortgage interest rates, lower home prices (translate --> more affordable) and the upcoming prime home selling/ buying season may be combining to generate a bottom in the real estate market- both in Longmeadow and across the United States.....

Let's hope so!

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East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

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Latest Longmeadow Home Sales Results

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing recent single family home sales for Longmeadow, Massachusetts. These results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

The bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales from January through November 2008 were significantly lower (-19.5%) vs. results for the corresponding periods in 2007 and 2006 (149 transactions in 2008 vs. 185 in 2007 and 183 in 2006).

[click chart to enlarge]

A bright spot in the latest data is that home sales results for the latest five months (July through November 2008) were equivalent to the same period in 2007 and only slightly lower than that for 2006 (85 transactions vs. 85 and 89).

Median prices remained stable in November (see chart below). However, the current median price ($306,000) is still significantly lower (-12.9%) than the peak reached in September 2007 ($350,000).

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Current home inventory and sales figures indicate the average "time to sell" a home in Longmeadow remained at ~ 10-12 months.

Hopefully, all of the recent activity in Washington about reducing mortgage rates and helping stem the large increases in foreclosures will finally bring a bottom to this difficult real estate market.

Disappointing August Longmeadow Home Sales

July’s upbeat sales report now contrasts dramatically with poor results in August suggesting that the rebound in Longmeadow real estate sales is still some time away.



[click chart to enlarge]

The above barchart shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales from January through August 2008 was much lower (-30.0%) vs. results for the corresponding periods in 2007 and 2006 (103 transactions in 2008 vs. 147 in 2007 and 140 in 2006).

In particular August home sales results were significantly lower vs. July 2008 (12 vs 27) as well as compared to August 2007 results (12 vs. 29). Current home inventory and sales figures indicate the average "time to sell" a home in Longmeadow has increased to ~ 10-11 months.

The only bright spot with these latest results is the continuing stability and slight increase in the median sales price for the past four months (see below) suggesting that we may be seeing a bottom forming for Longmeadow real estate market. The chart below shows that the median sales price (6 month trailing average) for homes sold during the past four months have stabilized at ~ $305,000 but it is ~ 13% lower than the peak value ($350,000) reached in September 2007.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2007-2008 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs.

Vacation Rentals

If you have a vacation home and are looking to rent it, there is a low cost advertising option at LongmeadowBiz.com. For only $50/year, we will design and host a webpage on LongmeadowBiz including photos, rental details and more. Periodic updates (e.g., changing photos- summer vs. winter) are included with the annual fee.

Rent to your friends and neighbors.

Check out the sample rental webpage to see what features are available. There is already one vacation property available for rental.

To list your vacation home, send an email to webmaster@longmeadowbiz.com.

Latest Longmeadow Home Sales

The latest Longmeadow home sales results for May show a significant increase vs. April (normal seasonal increase) but the year to year monthly comparisons show sales lower than the past two years (17 vs. 21 for May 2007 and 26 for May 2006) as can be seen in the chart below:

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2008 YTD results are significantly lower than corresponding 2007 results (48 vs. 77 - a 37.7% decrease).

Home sale prices also continued to follow the trend established earlier last year in which they correlated pretty well with assessed property values. In May 2008 10 out of 17 homes sold for less than the current assessed value.

Median prices appeared to have leveled out at ~ $296,000- the lowest median price in almost two years- as shown in the chart below.

[click to enlarge chart]

April Sales Figures...Good news/ bad news

The current real estate market reminds me of a “bear” stock market.

There have been days in the past …even in the most recent past six months- when the stock market has been down “big time” with the DJIA down triple digits. During these periods of time I just cringe and don’t want to know what’s happening because it is so depressing- thinking about all of the paper $$$ losses and not being able to do much about it. At the same time the various CNBC “talking heads” predict another 20% drop in stock prices and I just keep thinking about the still larger drop in my stock portfolio. Psychologically, I want to sell everything at any price and limit my losses. However, one thing that I have learned from over 30 years of investing in the stock market is that a contrarian point of view with a long term prospective is a good strategy. Large declines in the stock market point eventually lead to bargain prices with upside potential gains…. Remember the long time investment adage “big low… sell high”. However, in the heady days of the tech stock market boom, some stocks got way too high and dropped precipitously…. and haven’t come close to recovering… even after more than five years. However, solid performing stocks have recovered nicely.

I believe that the same thing will become true with the current real estate market. There are obviously overheated markets (e.g., Florida, California) where home price appreciation reached absurb levels and now these areas are correcting sharply. These markets may never again see prices as high as they have been. Too many new homes with steep price tags were built and there were not enough buyers who could really afford them. Now with the sub-prime mortgage problems and the accompanying foreclosures, short sales, etc., there are many homes becoming available with more reasonable price tags. Again, the “talking heads” are calling for greater price declines before it is over, but given our country’s demographics, there is likely to be a strong long term demand for housing at a reasonable price in the future. The inevitable drop in home prices that will occur over the next 6 months - 2 years will be uneven but will present opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Now for the latest Longmeadow state of the housing market…

Part I- April 2008

[click to enlarge chart]

The numbers were similar to the rest of the country... April sales were down to 8 houses sold vs. 15 in 2007 and 10 in 2006. Jan-Apr 2008 YTD sales were also not very good with 31 vs 56 in 2007 and 47 in 2006. The large drop in YTD sales (-45%) vs. last year is similar in many other regions of the country.

The chart below shows that the median sales price (6 month trailing average) for homes sold in April 2008 showed a drop to lowest levels in almost two years.

Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website).

Part II- The Good News

Walking around my neighborhood and driving around town recently I know of at least 10 homes that have been “sold” and will likely close in May or June that are not included in these latest sales figures. In addition, a local realtor told me recently that she had sold 5 houses in the last two weeks and was involved in one sale that involved 5 bids with the final price significantly higher than the asking price. Using the recent past home sales figures (or stock market performance) to predict the next 6 months – 5 years is akin to driving a car using the rear view mirror. While we are obviously not ready to declare that the Longmeadow real estate market has become a “seller’s market”, there are signs that maybe some improvement is in the making. One interesting comment in the April 24 Springfield Republican article by Susan Renfrew, President of the Massachusetts Assn. of Realtors was interesting: “people selling in this market also need to remember they’ll end buying their next home in the same market”. Let’s hope that by late summer/ early fall some sense of normalcy will have returned to our Longmeadow real estate market.

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Longmeadow 2007 Home Sales Increase by 4.8%

Earlier this month the National Association of Realtors reported that seasonally adjusted existing home sales decreased by 20% nationally from November 2006 to November 2007 while in Longmeadow home sales increased by 4.8% in 2007 from 2006 as shown in the chart below. A total of 198 homes were sold in 2007 as compared to 189 in 2006...

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In the same report, the National Association of Realtors stated that the national median price of homes dropped 3.3 percent ($217,300 --> $210,200) from November 2006.

The chart below shows that the median sales price for Longmeadow homes sold in 2007 increased to the mid-2006 levels after dropping in early 2007. Median prices for homes in Longmeadow showed a slight increase ($334,000 vs. $336,000) when comparing results for November 2006 vs. November 2007.

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While the overall real estate market for Longmeadow was not as vibrant in 2007 as it was in the 2005-2006 time period, sales results and median prices appeared to be doing better than many other regions of the United States.