Longmeadow 2009 Home Sales

Below are the 2009 real estate sales results for Longmeadow, Massachusetts...

• The full year 2009 results show that the number of houses sold in Longmeadow was 3.8% higher than corresponding 2008 results (165 vs. 159) but home sales were still significantly lower than recorded for prior years (2006- 189, 13% lower and 2007- 198, 17% lower).
  
  
• During the second half of 2009 median sales prices for homes continued to show improvement from the lows observed in early 2009. Median prices at year end were 15.2% higher than December 2008.
  
  
• The number of houses sold in the last two months of 2009 was significantly higher than each of the previous three years: 2009: 29 2008: 19 2007: 19 2006: 17

Some less favorable trends include:

• A large percentage of homes continue to be sold at prices below the official assessment values continuing a trend that has been in place for the past two years.
  
  
• For all of 2009 ~ 55% of the home (90 out of 165) were sold below the current assessed values.
  
  
• Full year 2009 results showed that higher priced homes (>$400K) may be more difficult to sell in the current environment with only 39 out of 165 homes (24%) sold priced above $400,000. (Currently there are 24 homes out of 60 listings (40%) on MLS that are priced above $400K.)

[click to enlarge chart]
Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website).

During November- December 2009 time frame ~45% of the homes sold (13 out of 29) were at prices less than the official assessment value. For all of 2009 55% of the homes (90 out of 165) were sold below the official assessment value.

Note: The latest November/ December home sales results are compared to the new FY2010 assessed values.

During the second half of 2009 median sales prices for homes continued to show improvement from the lows observed in early 2009. Median prices at year end were 15.2% higher than December 2008.

Despite these mixed results it does appear that a bottom may be forming for the Longmeadow real estate market (as well as the rest of the US). This combined with a recovery economy may lead to a more normally functioning real estate market in 2010.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2009 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs.

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
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Massachusetts Real Estate is Turning the Corner

The news has been filled with some very positive commentary about the improving state of the real estate market in Massachusetts. Below are excerpts from the Boston Globe and Bloomberg News- Read the full stories by clicking on the links for additional details.

Home Sales Rise in Massachusetts- Boston Globe, November 25, 2009

“Sales of single-family homes rose by 17.2 percent in October, compared with the same month last year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases, according to Warren Group, a private company that tracks real estate data. The number of sales, 4,295, marks the highest total for the month of October since 2005.”

“The number of Massachusetts homes on the market on Oct. 31 was down 15 percent, compared with the same time last year, the 19th straight month that inventory had declined, according to the Massachusetts Association of Realtors, which also released data yesterday. Inventory of homes for sale in October was the lowest for that month since 2002, the association said.”

Home mortgage rates are at some of the lowest levels in a long time which should significantly help the recovery in home real estate sales.

Here is a recent story from Bloomberg News…

Mortgage Rates in U.S. Match Record Low Set in April - November 25, 2009
The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate for single family homes was a record low 4.78% while the average 15 year rate was 4.29% Read the full story for additional details.

Hopefully, by next Spring we will see a return to a more normal real estate market.

Longmeadow Real Estate Continues to Improve

There was good news this month....both home sales and prices in Longmeadow are increasing!!

Home sales in the month of August were significantly higher than one year ago (19 vs. 12) and YTD figures improved to show an increase vs. 2008 (110 vs. 103, a 7% increase).

[click chart to enlarge]

Median home selling prices in August continued to increase toward the peak reached in October 2007 ($350,000 vs. $335,000 in August). Median home prices in Longmeadow are up 8.1% from August 2008 ($335,000 vs. $310,000).

With an increasing number of homes being sold and the accompanying increase in median home sales prices, it does appear that a bottom may be forming for the Longmeadow real estate market (as well as the rest of the US). This combined with a recovery economy may lead to a more normally functioning real estate market in 2010.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2009 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs.

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

LongmeadowBiz.com- Longmeadow's #1 Business and Community website

Longmeadow to Sell Property at Auction

The Town of Longmeadow will auction off property at 386 Bliss Road on Wednesday, August 12 at 7 PM. The auction will take place at the Longmeadow Community House. The last public auction of property in Longmeadow took place in November 2003.

According to Mary D. Pequignot, Longmeadow Treasurer/ Collector, the town acquired this property earlier this year through a tax title foreclosure. There is an estimated $100,000 owed to the town including delinquent property taxes, outstanding water and sewer bills and associated legal fees. The key objectives of the public auction is to recover these costs and to re-establish this property on the tax rolls.

As can be seen in the photos below the house has not been maintained for many years and is in pretty poor condition. There have been people living in the house until earlier this year when the occupant was evicted. The house has not been cleaned and will be sold on an “as is” basis.



The current value of this property is listed on Longmeadow's assessment records at $231,000 with the 0.50 acre of land listed at $190,000. It would appear that best outcome for Longmeadow and the surrounding neighbors would be for the winner bidder to demolish this house which is currently a significant neighborhood eyesore and to build a new one. This property is situated on a corner lot (corner of Bliss Road/ Oakland Drive) in a desirable location close to local schools (Blueberry Hill Elementary School/ Williams Middle School and Longmeadow HS) and Bliss Park.

[click above image to view active viewing window]

There will be an open house on Wednesday, August 5 from 10 am – 12 noon for interested parties. For those interested in participating in the open house or public auction please read the official press release on the Longmeadow Community Bulletin Board.

Given the current real estate market, the winner bidder for this property could get a real bargain.

I hope to be able to post videos of the open house and the public auction, so if you are interested, please bookmark this blog and plan to come back to read future posts.

Sales are slowing in Longmeadow

However, there was some good news this month....

• The number of Longmeadow home sales in the January - June 2009 period were significantly higher vs. the corresponding period in 2008 (74 vs. 64). See figure 1 below.
  
• The median sales price in May and June was at the highest level since the peak in October 2007 ($318,500 vs. $350,000) and the continuing trend this year appears to be up. See figure 2 below.

On the negative side...

• There appeared to be a resurgence in home sales during the first four months of 2009 that I wrote about in a posting in early May... possibly due to low mortgage rates... but home sales for the past two months (May/ June) were at the lowest levels in the past 4 years (see figure 1).
  
• The median sales price (average of past 6 months) showed an increase during the past two months to $318,500 but it is still 9.0% lower vs. the peak reached in October 2007 ($318,500 vs. $350,000)- (see figure 2).
  
• 15 out 29 (52%) homes in May/ June were sold at less than the official Town of Longmeadow assessed value (see figure 3). This is very similar to the trend for January - June 2009 with 39 out of 74 (53%) homes selling below the assessed value.
  

Figure 1- Home Sales, Longmeadow, MA
[click chart to enlarge]

Figure 2- Median Sales Price, Longmeadow, MA
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Figure 3- Sales Price vs. Assessment Value, Longmeadow, MA
[click chart to enlarge]

For the first 6 months of 2009, there were only 5 properties (out of 74 total, 6.8%) sold at prices > $500,000 although there are 27 properties (out of 114, 23.7%) currently listed with MLS. This is probably not surprising given the current difficulties in getting large mortgages.

Home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts in 2009 are on track to be higher than 2008 but the recent increase in mortgage interest rates may be slowing down this resurgence. However, it does appear that a bottom may be forming in the Longmeadow real estate market (as well as the rest of the US). This bottoming process combined with a economic recovery may lead to a more normally functioning real estate market in 2010. Let's hope so!

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

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Some continued good news this month....

Here is the good news...

• The first bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales in the January - April 2009 period were significantly higher (up 45%) vs. the corresponding period in 2008 (45 vs. 31).
• April 2009 sales were up 88% from April 2008 (15 vs. 8)
• Longmeadow home sales in April 2009 (15) were at the highest level during the past four years and equal to results for April 2007.

On the negative side...

• Sales for the January - April 2009 period were still significantly lower vs. results for the corresponding January - April periods in 2007 (45 vs. 56).
• The median sales price (average of past 6 months) showed an increase this month to $303,500 but it is still 13.3% lower vs. the peak reached in October 2007 ($303,500 vs. $350,000).

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing recent single family home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts.

[click chart to enlarge]

Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website). The trend of a significant number of homes selling at prices below current assessment value continued in April (6 out of 15). The chart below shows that the median sales price (6 month trailing average) in April 2009 increased to $303,500 but it is still 13.3% lower vs. peak of $350,000 reached in October 2007.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2009 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs. The above results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

The latest results continue to show that dramatically lower mortgage interest rates, lower home prices (translate --> more affordable) and the upcoming prime home selling/ buying season may be combining to generate a bottom in the real estate market- both in Longmeadow and across the United States.....

Let's hope so!

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

LongmeadowBiz.com- Longmeadow's #1 Business and Community website

Some improvement in March sales

Here's the good news.....

The bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales in January-March 2009 period were significantly higher vs. the corresponding period in 2008 (30 vs. 23). However, sales for the January- March 2009 period were still significantly lower vs. results for the corresponding January - March periods in 2007 and 2006 (30 transactions in 2009 vs. 37 in 2007 and 41 in 2006).

[click chart to enlarge]

Now the bad news....

The median sales price continues to decrease and is 19.3% lower vs. the peak reached in October 2007 ($282,500 vs. $350,000).

Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website). The trend of a significant number of homes selling at prices below current assessment value continued in March (18 out of 30 for the January - March 2009 time period).

Hopefully, with dramatically lower mortgage interest rates and the upcoming prime home selling/ buying season there will a strong rebound in the local and national real estate markets.

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

LongmeadowBiz.com- Longmeadow's #1 Business and Community website

Longmeadow Home Sales Are Hanging Tough!

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing recent single family home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts. The bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales in January-February 2009 period were significantly higher vs. the corresponding period in 2008 (20 vs. 15).

However, sales for the 2009 January/February period were significantly lower vs. results for the corresponding January-February periods in 2007 and 2006 (20 transactions in 2009 vs. 26 in 2007 and 28 in 2006).


[click to enlarge chart]

The above results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

The median sales price has remained relatively constant for the past 11 months but is still 17.0% lower vs. the peak reached in October 2007 ($290,500 vs. $350,000).


[click to enlarge chart]

Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website).

The trend of a significant number of homes selling at prices below current assessment value continued in February (12 out of 20 for the Jan-Feb 2009 time period).

[click to enlarge chart]

Hopefully, with dramatically lower mortgage interest rates and the upcoming prime home selling/ buying season there will a strong rebound in the local and national real estate markets.

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

LongmeadowBiz.com- Longmeadow's #1 Business and Community website

Longmeadow home sales are still low compared to prior years

The bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales in January 2009 were higher than January 2008 (10 vs. 7) but significantly lower than results for the corresponding January periods in 2007 and 2006 (10 transactions in 2009 vs. 15 in 2007 and 20 in 2006).

[click chart to enlarge]

The median sales price in January did not change vs. the preceding months but was significantly lower (-13.8%) than one year ago ($294,950 vs. $342,250- see chart below).

[click chart to enlarge]

Current home inventory and sales figures indicate the average "time to sell" a home in Longmeadow remained at ~ 10-12 months.

Hopefully, with dramatically lower mortgage interest rates (near historical lows) and the upcoming prime home selling/ buying season there will a strong rebound in the local and national real estate markets.

Longmeadow FSBO
East Longmeadow FSBO
House for Rent at LongmeadowBiz
Vacation Rentals at LongmeadowBiz

www.LongmeadowBiz.com- Longmeadow's #1 Business and Community website

Longmeadow Foreclosures are Increasing- Part III

In a previous report on this subject....

"The reported increase in the number of foreclosures in Longmeadow for FY2008 (ending June 30, 2008) was a very low percentage of the total number of homes (8 out of 5500 = 0.15%) and should not be a concern to Longmeadow homeowners worried about their property values."

Upon checking recently with the Hampden County Register of Deeds website- (this is a free public access database with search capability), there were reported a total of 7 Longmeadow homes foreclosed during the calendar year 2008- which is still a very low percentage (0.13%) of the total number and much lower than the national average. And there was only 1 Longmeadow foreclosure in the last six months of 2008.

This positive piece of information probably needs to be tempered by the fact that there significant number of homes this year that were sold significantly below current assessed values and which probably reflect distressed sales- either short sales or other circumstances.

For some additional information on "short sales" see blog posting by Nyles Courchesne- an experienced local real estate attorney involved with such transactions.

As reported in a recent Real Estate Buzz posting Longmeadow Real Estate sales in 2008 did take a downturn....

1. Home sales from January through December 2008 were significantly lower (-19.7%) vs. results for the corresponding period in 2007.
   
2. Median prices dropped in December and the current median sales price ($295,000) was significantly lower (-15.4%) vs. December 2007 ($348,500).

These declines in sales and median prices are similar to the national average reported by the National Association of Realtors.

Latest Longmeadow Home Sales Results

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing recent single family home sales for Longmeadow, Massachusetts. These results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

The bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales from January through November 2008 were significantly lower (-19.5%) vs. results for the corresponding periods in 2007 and 2006 (149 transactions in 2008 vs. 185 in 2007 and 183 in 2006).

[click chart to enlarge]

A bright spot in the latest data is that home sales results for the latest five months (July through November 2008) were equivalent to the same period in 2007 and only slightly lower than that for 2006 (85 transactions vs. 85 and 89).

Median prices remained stable in November (see chart below). However, the current median price ($306,000) is still significantly lower (-12.9%) than the peak reached in September 2007 ($350,000).

[click chart to enlarge]







Current home inventory and sales figures indicate the average "time to sell" a home in Longmeadow remained at ~ 10-12 months.

Hopefully, all of the recent activity in Washington about reducing mortgage rates and helping stem the large increases in foreclosures will finally bring a bottom to this difficult real estate market.

Longmeadow Home Sales- October 2008

Shown below are a series of charts summarizing recent single family home sales in Longmeadow, Massachusetts. These results include both MLS and FSBO transactions and are based upon public information obtained from the Hampden County Registrar of Deeds website.

The bargraph below shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales from January through October 2008 were significantly lower (-21.8%) vs. results for the corresponding periods in 2007 and 2006 (140 transactions in 2008 vs. 179 in 2007 and 172 in 2006).

One bright spot is that home sales results for the latest four months (July through October) were only slightly lower (-3.8%) than the corresponding periods in 2007 and 2006 (76 transactions in 2008 vs. 79 in 2007 and 78 in 2006).


[click to view larger chart]

As shown in the chart below median prices declined in October to $305,000 from $315,000 in September. The latest sales data showed that 12 out of 17 homes were sold this month below the median price (Keep in mind that the calculated median prices are trailing 6 month results.) This change in median price was a significant decrease (-12.9%) from last year's peak ($350,000) and the data is similar to the national trend. In addition, 10 out of 17 homes were sold below the current Longmeadow assessment value.

[click to view larger chart]

Current home inventory and sales figures indicate the average "time to sell" a home in Longmeadow remained at ~ 10-11 months.

All of the home sales data for these charts can be found at the Longmeadow-FSBO website.

Disappointing August Longmeadow Home Sales

July’s upbeat sales report now contrasts dramatically with poor results in August suggesting that the rebound in Longmeadow real estate sales is still some time away.



[click chart to enlarge]

The above barchart shows that the number of Longmeadow home sales from January through August 2008 was much lower (-30.0%) vs. results for the corresponding periods in 2007 and 2006 (103 transactions in 2008 vs. 147 in 2007 and 140 in 2006).

In particular August home sales results were significantly lower vs. July 2008 (12 vs 27) as well as compared to August 2007 results (12 vs. 29). Current home inventory and sales figures indicate the average "time to sell" a home in Longmeadow has increased to ~ 10-11 months.

The only bright spot with these latest results is the continuing stability and slight increase in the median sales price for the past four months (see below) suggesting that we may be seeing a bottom forming for Longmeadow real estate market. The chart below shows that the median sales price (6 month trailing average) for homes sold during the past four months have stabilized at ~ $305,000 but it is ~ 13% lower than the peak value ($350,000) reached in September 2007.

Here is a link to the data for 2006-2007-2008 Real Estate Transactions that were used to develop the above graphs.

Pending US Home Sales for June Increase 5.3%

The National Association of Realtors just announced that the number of pending sales of existing homes (adjusted for seasonal variations) increased by 5.3% in June (as compared to May). The "pending sales" number is viewed by many experts as a leading indicator of future home sales so this latest figure is very encouraging that the US housing crisis may be at the beginning of a bottoming process. Here is a link to an AP story on this announcement.

A previous post on this blog about pending sales for Longmeadow in May showed a healthy number (33) which was a good forecast of the latest July results.

The encouraging Longmeadow home sales report for July that I posted earlier this week looks like it may be part of a national trend.

Longmeadow Foreclosures Are Increasing- Part II

My recent post on this subject- "Longmeadow Foreclosures are Increasing" had the right title but the posted data was not accurate.

A second visit to the Hampden County Register of Deeds website found a summary of foreclosures by town for the FY2008 (ending 6/30/08) . Below is the data for Longmeadow as compared to East Longmeadow and Wilbraham.













Source: Hampden County Register of Deeds website.
Here is a link to the July 2008 summary written by Donald E. Ashe, Hampden County Register of Deeds

The reported increase in the number of foreclosures in Longmeadow is still a very low percentage of the total number of homes (8 out of 5500 = 0.15%) and should not be a concern to Longmeadow homeowners worried about their property values.

Some Good News for Longmeadow Real Estate

“Home Prices Fell in 23 of 25 U.S. Metro Areas in May”
“Paulson Says Stimulus Worked, But Housing Still Correcting”
“US Housing Prices: When's the Bottom?”
“Worst Residential Real Estate Market Since Man First Walked on the Moon!”
“Housing relief bill unlikely to help those in most trouble”

The theme of continuing gloom and doom in the above news headlines continued to dominate the news media this past week and if you are trying to sell a house in this environment, it can get pretty depressing.

There is some good news in the latest July sales results for Longmeadow.

As shown in the chart below the number of Longmeadow home sales increased dramatically to 27 in July from 16 in June. Comparison of July results from one year ago also showed much stronger home sales results (27 vs. 18). However, because of the weak results for the first six months of 2008, 2008 YTD results are still down 23% vs. 2007 YTD results.

[click to enlarge]

As shown in the chart below there are some encouraging signs on median prices where for the fourth consecutive month the median sales price remained stable at ~ $300,000.














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Some housing experts have indicated that the first signs of a bottom in the housing crisis will be price stabilization and increased home sales. In Longmeadow, it appears that this is happening…. Hopefully, this is the beginning of the return of some normalcy to our local real estate market.

Stay tuned for further developments by visiting Real Estate Buzz at LongmeadowBiz.

Existing home sales continue slide

Existing home sales are now at the lowest rate in 10 years.

A report from Bloomberg.com this morning on the latest existing US home sales showed disappointing results and no end to the current housing problems...

Sales of existing homes in June dropped 2.6% to 4.86 million (vs. 4.99 million in May and estimated 4.94 million)

18.6 million houses, apartments and condos were vacant during the last three months. Median prices have dropped 6.1% in the past year.

Here is a link to a video interview with Rebecca Braeu, a economist/ real estate analyst with John Hancock Financial Services who sees this latest data as troubling sign for the fragile housing market.

There is some help on the way from Congress with financial fixes being planned for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac- the giant mortgage guarantors to help improve the availability of mortgage money. In addition as much as $4 billion in grants will become available for communities to use to purchase foreclosed properties. The bill in Congress is expected to become law by next week.

Read the full story on Forbes.com.

Is it time to buy in Longmeadow- Part II?

Most housing data reported by both the local and national media are lagging indicators. For example, this past week, the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales through April 30. This data is certainly not a leading indicator… Using this information to evaluate the current real estate market is like “driving a car using the rear view mirror”.

Even though the sales data that I provide on a monthly basis is more current (earlier this week I reported Longmeadow 2008 sales figures through May 31) it still does not provide current enough information since most transactions that were reported were in process for at least 4-8 weeks.

In our April Sales Report… Good News/ Bad News post we reported seeing numerous “SOLD” and “Sale Pending” signs around town that seemed to indicate that buying activity was picking up. While the May 2008 results were up vs. April 2008 (17 vs. 8), corresponding May 2008 results vs. May 2007 were disappointing (17 vs. 21).

We have now identified a new statistic that might provide us a good leading indicator…. it is called "Sales Pending". According to MLS PIN , there were 33 Longmeadow homes in this category as of June 5 which confirms our “around town” observations. This data includes MLS sales but does not include FSBO sales which are usually are 10% of the total.

Given that there were 23 homes sold in June 2007 and 18 sold in July 2007, this latest Sales Pending data suggests a fairly active sales season for the upcoming summer as compared to last year.

Last week’s sales report also showed that 10 out of 17 homes sold for less than the official town assessment value with the median sales price at a two year low. While the current environment for obtaining a mortgage is more difficult, qualified buyers can still get one. And interest rates are still low on a historical basis.

I suggested in a post earlier this year, that 2008 might be a great time to buy a house in Longmeadow.

So….. it is still probably a great time to buy a house in Longmeadow.

Also, if you are thinking about selling your house.... don't wait too long. I suspect that once the word is out that houses are again selling in Longmeadow.... that there will be a wave on new properties being offered for sale. Consider selling your house via FSBO in order to be able to price it for today's "buyer's market".



Longmeadow FSBO

Latest Longmeadow Home Sales

The latest Longmeadow home sales results for May show a significant increase vs. April (normal seasonal increase) but the year to year monthly comparisons show sales lower than the past two years (17 vs. 21 for May 2007 and 26 for May 2006) as can be seen in the chart below:

[click to enlarge chart]

2008 YTD results are significantly lower than corresponding 2007 results (48 vs. 77 - a 37.7% decrease).

Home sale prices also continued to follow the trend established earlier last year in which they correlated pretty well with assessed property values. In May 2008 10 out of 17 homes sold for less than the current assessed value.

Median prices appeared to have leveled out at ~ $296,000- the lowest median price in almost two years- as shown in the chart below.

[click to enlarge chart]

April Sales Figures...Good news/ bad news

The current real estate market reminds me of a “bear” stock market.

There have been days in the past …even in the most recent past six months- when the stock market has been down “big time” with the DJIA down triple digits. During these periods of time I just cringe and don’t want to know what’s happening because it is so depressing- thinking about all of the paper $$$ losses and not being able to do much about it. At the same time the various CNBC “talking heads” predict another 20% drop in stock prices and I just keep thinking about the still larger drop in my stock portfolio. Psychologically, I want to sell everything at any price and limit my losses. However, one thing that I have learned from over 30 years of investing in the stock market is that a contrarian point of view with a long term prospective is a good strategy. Large declines in the stock market point eventually lead to bargain prices with upside potential gains…. Remember the long time investment adage “big low… sell high”. However, in the heady days of the tech stock market boom, some stocks got way too high and dropped precipitously…. and haven’t come close to recovering… even after more than five years. However, solid performing stocks have recovered nicely.

I believe that the same thing will become true with the current real estate market. There are obviously overheated markets (e.g., Florida, California) where home price appreciation reached absurb levels and now these areas are correcting sharply. These markets may never again see prices as high as they have been. Too many new homes with steep price tags were built and there were not enough buyers who could really afford them. Now with the sub-prime mortgage problems and the accompanying foreclosures, short sales, etc., there are many homes becoming available with more reasonable price tags. Again, the “talking heads” are calling for greater price declines before it is over, but given our country’s demographics, there is likely to be a strong long term demand for housing at a reasonable price in the future. The inevitable drop in home prices that will occur over the next 6 months - 2 years will be uneven but will present opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Now for the latest Longmeadow state of the housing market…

Part I- April 2008

[click to enlarge chart]

The numbers were similar to the rest of the country... April sales were down to 8 houses sold vs. 15 in 2007 and 10 in 2006. Jan-Apr 2008 YTD sales were also not very good with 31 vs 56 in 2007 and 47 in 2006. The large drop in YTD sales (-45%) vs. last year is similar in many other regions of the country.

The chart below shows that the median sales price (6 month trailing average) for homes sold in April 2008 showed a drop to lowest levels in almost two years.

Below is a chart showing the relationship between recent Longmeadow real estate Sales Prices and Assessed Values (data obtained from Vision Appraisal website).

Part II- The Good News

Walking around my neighborhood and driving around town recently I know of at least 10 homes that have been “sold” and will likely close in May or June that are not included in these latest sales figures. In addition, a local realtor told me recently that she had sold 5 houses in the last two weeks and was involved in one sale that involved 5 bids with the final price significantly higher than the asking price. Using the recent past home sales figures (or stock market performance) to predict the next 6 months – 5 years is akin to driving a car using the rear view mirror. While we are obviously not ready to declare that the Longmeadow real estate market has become a “seller’s market”, there are signs that maybe some improvement is in the making. One interesting comment in the April 24 Springfield Republican article by Susan Renfrew, President of the Massachusetts Assn. of Realtors was interesting: “people selling in this market also need to remember they’ll end buying their next home in the same market”. Let’s hope that by late summer/ early fall some sense of normalcy will have returned to our Longmeadow real estate market.

Longmeadow House for Sale by Owner
East Longmeadow House for Sale by Owner